Smash and timing

Sweet Snow

Dreams delight
Pronouns
Kie/Mer
(This is taken from my Tumblr blog, BTW, I just didn't feel like typing things slightly differently all over again.)
Sometimes, time is a jerk that prevents us from getting what we want.

So, if you followed my blog, you know I'm a big fan of ARMS, Min-Min in specific, I'll be over the moon if any fighter gets in Smash.

However, something recently popped up that cast my doubts over them being in the base game in any form besides trophies or music

Sakurai's finalization of Smash Ultimate Roster came in 2015, the same time when Splatoon 1 was still getting updated, where we still knew the Switch as the NX and we haven't thought of Xenoblade 2 because we thought Xenoblade X was Xenoblade 2, ARMS was either in very early development or not at all, and keep it mind, the earlier days of development didn't reflect the final product 100%


There is elements of the more recently released Super Mario Odyssey and Splatoon 2, but these so far result in Music, models and a stage, not that it's easy to make these things, but it generally takes less time and were added in a later development stage where there is less of a risk.

What is that risk?

Representing a game that was either heavily altered or never released at all, this actually happened with Smash games in the past, Smash 64 had Adult Link use an item he doesn't use because OOT was in development along side Smash 64 and thus Sakurai going through what he has been given just assumed that he had that move since Link could do that in A Link To The Past.

Sakurai wasn't aware of Luigi's Mansion during making Luigi in Melee, hence there is no moves from that game or Luigi having his voice or personalty established in that, there is a Luigi with the Poltergust 3000 trophy, but the model is taken directly from the game itself and is not made for Smash itself.

Roy, ya know, the guy who's game wasn't even out when Melee was released has a more hot blooded personalty in Melee than he does in his actual game, and according to interview, both Sakurai and Roy's seiru knew Roy from the time he name was, believe it or not, Ike. This is from the early days what ultimately became the Blinding Blade was a game for the Nintendo 64


But the biggest case is Lucas in Melee, there is no doubt he would be based on his incarnation from the 64 version of Mother 3


While Roy's game came out a year after Melee, the GBA version of Mother 3 did not come out till 5 years after it when the game was changed heavily and the Nintendo 64 was cancelled and never finished, in another realm, the GBA version may have not came out or wasn't even considered after how hard it hit the dev team, a character in only in one Japan only game is one thing, a game that flat out never got made and still having a character in Smash is a "What?" moment for all players.

This also applies to third parties to a greater degree, they are in no terms to share what they have to Nintendo unless they approach them in person, for all we know Sakurai found out Undertale was coming to the Switch the same day we did.(Besides, it wouldn't be Sans, he's not the main character and his whole stichk is that he won't and doesn't want to fight unless you force him to)

TLDR: Timing makes things hard for Smash stuff
 
Some interesting trivia. Brawl had two placeholder spots for characters when its roster was decided on back in 2005. One for a Fire Emblem lord and one for a new Pokemon. Sakurai just didn't know who yet. As development went on, these two placeholders became Ike and Lucario. Something similar happened in Smash 4, with a spot for a "X and Y Pokemon" but no concrete idea in 2012. This obviously became Greninja after meeting with the Pokemon Company and reviewing concept art.

So it seems like for really big franchises, Sakurai puts a placeholder before determining who the character will be. The timing for the Smash 4 project plan and the release of Pokemon X and Y is pretty close to the Ultimate project plan and Sun and Moon, so a rep is likely, but the smaller newcomer size may exclude him.

I think the date of the project plan is very important to consider when making roster predictions. Let's look at Smash 4 as an example. The plan for that game was finalized in 2012. Now let's look at the newcomers.

Villager - New Leaf in 2012, plus a major character not yet added.
Mega Man - 3rd party, different rules.
Wii Fit Trainer - Three games from 2007 to 2013. Wii era rep.
Rosalina - Galaxy games in 2007 and 2010. Many spin off appearances between 2007 and 2012. 3D World in 2013.
Little Mac - Punch-Out Wii in 2009
Greninja - Pokemon rep.
Miis - Wii icons
Palutena (and Dark Pit) - Uprising 2012.
Pac-Man - 3rd party.
Robin (and Lucina) - Awakening in 2012
Shulk - Xenoblade in 2010.
Bowser Jr. - Games all throughout this period.
Duck Hunt - Retro rep.

Based on this, for determining Ultimate newcomers. We should look at the period from 2013 to probably first half of 2016. The Ballot does potentially throw a wrench in this theory and could result in a lot more fan demanded characters. But using this method, characters like Captain Toad, Dixie Kong, and Ashley seem very likely.
 
Back