Stuff I make - dont ask for anything

Re: Stuff I make - what is requests

thanks for oregon nate
i had a good rest
 
Re: Stuff I make - what is requests

no im all rested up look at me does this face look like i didnt sleep

1391977712005.jpg
 
Re: Stuff I make - what is requests

you can probably tell where I switched from my old broken mouse to a new wireless mouse

it responded better to the cushion of this chair than the mouse pad for whatever reason

Oregon14.png
 
Re: Stuff I make - what is requests

For no reason, I am going to explain the Monty Hall problem and why switching gives a 2/3 chance of winning the rarer prize and why not switching has a 1/3 chance of winning the rarer prize. I know the discussion ended a year ago but I like explaining this problem so much that I'm going to do it anyway.

The game has three possible configurations. What differs in the configurations is where the rarer prize is. For simplicity's sake, let us define the rarer prize to be a car, and the more common prize to be a goat. Let us also define the situation so that we want the car but not the goat. To help illustrate the three initial possibilities, I am going to construct an exhaustive table of all three initial states of the problem.

Door #1Door #2Door #3
Variation #1CarGoatGoat
Variation #2GoatCarGoat
Variation #3GoatGoatCar

Since these variations are identical in the number of cars present and the number of goats present, it suffices to only investigate one variation of the game. In this instance, the first variation of the game is analysed. Another exhaustive table is provided below that details the choice of the player in bold, underline text.

Door #1Door #2Door #3
Choice #1CarGoatGoat
Choice #2CarGoatGoat
Choice #3CarGoatGoat

What is immediately obvious from the above table is how there is always a 2/3 chance that the player will initially choose a goat. Here, the host reveals that there is a goat behind a door which the player did not select; this is always possible as in each row in the table, there is at least one door behind which a goat is found that was not picked. To denote an opened door, italics will be used.

Door #1Door #2Door #3
Choice #1CarGoatGoat
Choice #2CarGoatGoat
Choice #3CarGoatGoat

NOTE: In Choice #1, Door #2 was selected to be opened at random. The fact that Door #2 is opened does not change the outcome in the slightest; even if Door #3 was opened, the contestant would still only have one door with the car behind it and another one with a goat behind it.

As is clearly evident from the above table, in two cases out of three, when the contestant switches doors, the contestant receives the rarer prize, which in this case was the car. Furthermore, in one case out of three, the contestant receives the car. To help further illustrate the validity of this, a table below is presented with the outcome after the switch. A previously chosen door is here denoted with strike-through. The newly chosen door is denoted using bold, underline text.

Door #1Door #2Door #3
Choice #1CarGoatGoat
Choice #2CarGoatGoat
Choice #3CarGoatGoat

Again, in two out of three cases, the contestant ends up getting the car.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back